Conflicts and Climate Change
The US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has said that “no nation can find lasting security without addressing the climate crisis” and that climate change is a “profoundly destabilizing force” and an “existential” threat to US national security. It’s not just the US that is facing a security threat due to climate change. A 2020 report by the Red Cross entitled “When Rain Turns To Dust” found that of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change the majority are at war. Based on a review of existing research, the Red Cross report also states “that countries enduring conflict are less able to cope with climate change, precisely because their ability to adapt is weakened by conflict.” Academic research has established this link. A 2019 research article that reviewed the academic literature related to climate change and conflict stated that “climate change acts as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s regions” and that “scholars should continue to investigate how climatic changes interact with and/or are conditioned by socioeconomic, political, and demographic settings to cause conflict.” To put this in perspective the article states that “substantial agreement exists that climatic changes contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways.” The UN has also discussed this linkage. The UN Refugee Agency has said that climate change is contributing to poverty, food insecurity, water shortages, and limiting access to critical natural resources needed for survival. All of this has already contributed to – and is expected to further contribute to – conflicts between peoples fighting to secure what they need to survive. According to a senior UN official “the failure to consider the growing impacts of climate change will undermine our efforts at conflict prevention, peacemaking and sustaining peace, and risk trapping vulnerable countries in a vicious cycle of climate disaster and conflict”.
Examples of Climate Change and Conflict
Several examples illustrate how climate change can contribute to conflicts.
The conflict in Syria – which started in 2011 – has led to about half of its pre-conflict population of 22 million people being displaced. According to the UN Refugee Agency, Syria has 6.2 million internally displaced and these people require humanitarian assistance. The millions of others displaced mostly reside in neighbouring countries and also require assistance. Some Syrian refugees have come to western countries. Canada has accepted about 45,000 Syrian refugees.
While the starting point of the conflict is generally noted as the use of deadly force against pro-democracy protesters in 2011, what is not always cited are the underlying conditions. According to research, the occurrence of a disastrous three year drought preceding the protests resulted in significant crop failure and loss of livestock. According to the research human-induced climate change made the likelihood of a drought as severe as the Syrian drought 2 to 3 times more likely than when compared to natural variability. According to a 2019 press release from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization regarding Syria “In 2007–2009, successive drought waves reduced national wheat production by more than 50 percent.” This led to price hikes seriously affecting the food security of 3.5 million people causing the migration of large numbers of small-scale farmers and herders to urban areas. The subsequent difficulties facing people in urban areas including unemployment and inequality led to the anti-government protests.
Those who state that climate change was not a direct cause of the conflict in Syria point to the fact that the same drought affected Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon but did not cause conflict in these countries. Government policies in Syria such as the reduction in fuel and fertilizer subsidies are thus to blame according to this point of view. The research article contributes to this point of view by stating that decades of unsustainable agricultural practices including methods leading to groundwater decline contributed to making the devastating drought more difficult to cope with.
Ultimately the impact of climate change can be summed up as not being the only or direct cause of the conflict but, as stated by the former UN Special Envoy for Syria between 2014 and 2018 as “an amplifier and multiplier of the political crisis that was building up in Syria”.
The Red Cross report summarizes other cases around the world where conflict and climate change together have resulted in devastating circumstances for humans. The report highlights examples in Central African Republic (CAR), Iraq and Mali. In all these cases, climate change and other environmental crises have made it harder to collectively deal with conflicts. In addition, instead of the sustainable management of limited resources people have been left without government support as a result of conflicts. All three countries have experienced water security challenges due in part to climate change. A common theme making lives harder is the increased presence of droughts, floods, and/or desertification – all more likely with climate change. Together this has meant a significant reduction in agricultural output in countries already highly reliant on agriculture as a fraction of economic output. The resulting food and economic insecurity for people in these countries has resulted in increased conflicts between people.
Conflict, Climate Change, and Canada
The Canadian government has recognized the link between conflict and climate change and is taking action to deal with this threat. The Prime Minister recently announced that Canada will be doubling its climate finance commitment from $2.65 billion to $5.3 billion to be spent over 5 years. According to a Global Affairs Canada spokesperson “Canada is open to projects touching on the climate-security nexus” when it comes to using its climate finance commitment. The spokesperson also stated that “Climate / environment issues can emerge as threat multipliers and we are working together with allies and partners, including within NATO and at the UN, to enhance understanding and promote information sharing on the links between climate change and our shared global security interests.”
Recommendations – What We Can Support
The Red Cross report and other sources have offered additional ideas on what actions can be taken to reduce the impacts of climate change in conflict zones. We need to assist those affected by conflict to become resilient to climate and other environmental shocks through programs that benefit people in both the short and long term. According to the report, during conflicts it is important to convince the different parties involved to not destroy places of environmental importance such as agricultural land, trees, or water bodies. This will ensure a habitable environment during and after the conflict. Destruction of these important resources due to conflict reduces people’s ability to adapt to climate change. To reduce tensions and conflicts due to water scarcity, the Red Cross has engaged in activities supporting the proper use of water resources by increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems, the use of drought resistant seed varieties, and the sustainable use of groundwater resources.
It is also important to correctly model and predict how environmental risks such as climate change can contribute to conflicts. These early warning systems that predict conflict should account for economic, social, and environmental factors (such as inequality, crime, tensions between sub-groups within the country, water stress, etc.) as well as regional factors (more than just at a country level). Examples where regional factors might affect conflicts include the construction of dams or human migration patterns. Having such early warning systems will help in preventing conflicts instead of reacting after conflicts occur.
Climate adaptation funding is also needed to reduce the risk of conflict in conflict-prone areas. Early warning systems can help determine which parts of the world need the most funding. Examples include targeting funding for those affected by water stress, flooding, and desertification in conflict-prone parts of the world to reduce the potential for conflict.
Although preventing conflicts is key it is also important to have strategies to deal with existing conflicts. The UN Refugee Agency is “urging States to step up their protection and assistance to people displaced by disasters and the effects of climate change”. This includes from conflicts. Just like preventing conflicts, this means that wealthy countries such as Canada must support the climate vulnerable in conflict zones to ensure their safety and security.
